Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 1062.811739 1215.045664 1388.501223 1602.288959 1860.797426 2165.976344 2557.551198
2025-01-05 810.556753 995.318318 1226.946356 1544.255884 1976.704964 2559.487621 3429.702605
2025-01-12 675.467292 866.372492 1120.346276 1492.861628 2043.225353 2857.823882 4220.994709
2025-01-19 580.339723 768.643858 1030.516603 1435.278520 2072.706242 3091.589939 4971.983056
2025-01-26 541.885204 740.675135 1029.568834 1500.505278 2293.268545 3670.186787 6508.591991
2025-02-02 503.126604 705.767289 1011.245631 1532.280814 2461.947680 4202.353237 8185.618162
2025-02-09 465.391988 667.093872 980.667628 1536.653608 2580.582360 4671.707667 9953.602050
2025-02-16 430.216800 628.086444 943.914078 1523.083570 2660.834696 5084.760910 11807.701737
2025-02-23 410.844485 611.760907 941.746627 1569.755106 2867.735165 5837.005285 15056.730573
2025-03-02 396.496504 601.846710 948.700583 1633.683518 3124.570204 6799.615101 19724.705105
2025-03-09 379.120224 584.980977 941.175600 1667.676211 3323.450277 7694.311812 25031.938956
2025-03-16 359.147495 561.757274 919.455719 1669.227595 3447.206061 8433.929885 30554.141434
2025-03-23 344.915589 547.821918 914.301450 1706.917102 3675.573233 9613.464029 39953.564965
2025-03-30 319.777222 512.522310 865.404476 1643.131926 3630.253546 9903.007187 45078.116733
2025-04-06 298.161596 481.958796 822.783511 1587.487431 3595.115388 10220.997754 51060.493639
2025-04-13 277.872672 452.419417 779.633040 1525.153757 3529.075192 10407.669459 56642.575019
2025-04-20 273.172264 451.328299 792.797342 1595.764292 3862.969248 12328.579840 81610.624945
2025-04-27 265.126366 443.273239 790.963641 1630.189285 4100.046802 14022.816692 111760.417111
2025-05-04 254.961797 430.407799 777.916586 1634.928036 4246.075742 15418.105284 146033.796446
2025-05-11 243.904866 415.062496 758.287498 1620.223390 4325.347413 16555.539310 184450.336665
2025-05-18 238.983192 411.398327 763.347469 1670.810286 4646.164080 19273.261375 281177.986113
2025-05-25 235.659655 410.642975 774.644444 1740.160872 5061.194734 23017.241946 474825.434227
2025-06-01 230.056367 404.871618 774.190189 1777.063966 5368.743688 26472.553690 772217.895718